Three weeks ago Portsmouth were 19th in the Championship, staring down the barrel of yet another relegation battle after a 1-0 defeat at Southampton. Today they are 11th, two points off the top six, and talking seriously about the play-offs. It is, by any measure, a remarkable shift in fortune.

From the brink to the fringe of the top six

The numbers tell the story plainly. A four-game unbeaten run, comprising three wins and a draw, has yielded a 10-point swing. According to BBC Sport, Portsmouth are currently five points better off at this stage of the season than they were at the equivalent point last term, and a full 10 points ahead of where they stood at the same juncture in 2024-25. They are also, per Opta figures cited by the broadcaster, in their highest position in the football league system after more than five games of a season since March 2011.

That kind of context matters at a club that spent 12 years outside the second tier. Portsmouth's two seasons back in the Championship have so far been defined by survival scraps. The shift in the table since mid-October has been striking enough to prompt genuine, if cautious, optimism among players and supporters alike.

Players daring to believe

Forward Adrian Segecic has been among the more outspoken voices. "We can definitely achieve where we want to be, play-offs and competing at the top of the table," he told BBC Radio Solent. "There's no reason we shouldn't believe we can, and we have shown it now. We have to just keep performing and believing. I think belief is the biggest thing about us, and with hard work I definitely feel like it can push us to the top."

That sort of language can read as press-release optimism, but the recent results give it some grounding. Manager John Mousinho has himself been measured in public: after the 2-1 win over Millwall he described the victory as undeserved, which suggests a coaching staff not getting ahead of itself.

The Hull City precedent

BBC Sport drew a comparison to Hull City, who finished 21st in the Championship, avoided relegation on goal difference on the final day, and then won promotion to the Premier League the following season after coming through the play-offs. It is a long road and an unlikely one, and Portsmouth are nowhere near replicating it yet. But the pattern is instructive. Survival, consolidation, belief, and then a late surge into the top six: it is not without precedent in this division.

The next test is a trip to Burnley on Saturday. A win there would push Portsmouth further into the conversation and, perhaps more importantly, embed the confidence that runs through the squad right now. Defeat would serve as a useful reality check. At this level the margins are fine, and a team two points off the play-offs can find itself five points adrift just as quickly as it can find itself inside the top six.

Derby still searching for answers

While Portsmouth have climbed, Derby County remain rooted at the other end of the table. John Eustace's side have endured a torrid run, compounded by an injury crisis that has left the defence undermanned. The club's board have publicly backed Eustace despite the poor form, but results have continued to disappoint. A draw at Sheffield United offered a sliver of encouragement, but Derby have not yet strung together the kind of unbeaten run that might drag them clear of the relegation zone.

The contrast between the two clubs this Halloween weekend could hardly be sharper: one daring to dream of the play-offs, the other still trying to make the basic arithmetic of survival add up.

A long way to go

Portsmouth's upturn is real and it deserves acknowledgement. But the Championship is long, squads get stretched by injury and fatigue, and a club that was 19th in mid-October has no business booking Wembley. What can reasonably be said is that Mousinho's side have shown enough in the past four games to suggest they will not be dragged back into a dogfight without a fight. Whether that is the foundation of a genuine play-off push or simply a welcome spell of mid-table stability will become clear over the next two months.

Frequently asked

Where are Portsmouth in the Championship table?
Portsmouth are currently 11th in the Championship, two points off the play-off places, after a four-game unbeaten run in late October.
Can Portsmouth make the Championship play-offs this season?
It is a long shot at this early stage, but Portsmouth are within two points of the top six following three wins and a draw in their last four games. Manager John Mousinho and his players have spoken openly about targeting the play-offs.
How are Derby County doing in the Championship?
Derby remain in serious difficulty near the foot of the Championship table. An ongoing injury crisis, particularly in defence, has compounded a poor run of results under John Eustace, though the board have maintained their backing of the manager.