The Championship rarely does straightforward, and the contrasting fortunes of Portsmouth and Derby County heading into the Halloween weekend are a reminder of just how quickly things can shift in the second tier.

Portsmouth: from relegation candidates to play-off chasers

Nineteen days. That is all it has taken for John Mousinho's Portsmouth to go from nervously looking over their shoulders to casting ambitious glances upward at the play-off places. As recently as 11 October, Pompey sat 19th in the table following a 1-0 defeat at Southampton in the south coast derby, bracing themselves for what appeared to be another grinding battle against the drop.

What followed, however, was a four-game unbeaten run comprising three wins and a draw. Portsmouth climbed to 11th and, according to BBC Sport, now sit within two points of the top eight. They are, according to Opta data cited in the BBC preview, in their highest position in the football league system after more than five games of a season since March 2011.

Forward Adrian Segecic has spoken openly about the shift in mood inside the camp. "We can definitely achieve where we want to be: play-offs and competing at the top of the table," Segecic told BBC Radio Solent. "There's no reason we shouldn't believe we can, and we have shown it now. We have to just keep performing and believing. I think belief is the biggest thing about us, and with hard work I definitely feel like it can push us to the top."

Whether Pompey can sustain that momentum remains to be seen, but the historical precedent is there for clubs willing to look. BBC Sport points to Hull City, who finished 21st in the Championship and narrowly avoided relegation on goal difference, only to sneak into the play-offs the following season and win promotion to the Premier League. Portsmouth are not favourites for a top-six finish, and nobody within the club is getting carried away, but the belief is genuine and, crucially, being backed up by results.

The trip to Burnley on Saturday represents a significant test of that belief. A positive result at Turf Moor would strengthen the narrative considerably and send a message to clubs around them that Pompey's recent form is no fluke.

Portsmouth are now five points better off at this stage than they were at the equivalent point last season, and ten points better off than in 2024-25, according to the BBC's figures. The trajectory, at least for now, is pointing firmly in the right direction.

Derby: the nightmare refuses to end

While Portsmouth have found a way to flip the script, Derby County continue to endure one of the division's most difficult spells. John Eustace's side remain rooted to the bottom of the Championship table, and the mounting injury crisis documented in recent weeks has done nothing to ease the pressure on the manager or the squad.

BBC Sport's Halloween weekend preview groups Derby among the division's most pressing concerns, noting that their nightmare start shows no sign of abating. The scale of the task facing Eustace is considerable: rebuilding confidence and cohesion within a squad already stretched thin, while picking up points in a division where margins are notoriously small.

Owner David Clowes has publicly backed Eustace despite the difficult run, a show of faith that may prove crucial in giving the manager the stability he needs to work through the problems. But patience in football has limits, and results will need to improve if Derby are to haul themselves clear of the relegation places before the situation becomes irretrievable.

The contrast with Portsmouth is stark. Both clubs have experienced the lower reaches of English football in recent memory and know the cost of dropping out of the Championship. For Pompey, the upswing feels real. For Derby, the weekend offers another opportunity to begin a climb that, for now, refuses to start.

The wider picture

The Championship's ability to produce these twin narratives simultaneously is part of what makes it so compelling. A club two points off the play-offs and a club stuck at the bottom are separated by relatively little in the grand scheme of a 46-game season. How Portsmouth and Derby navigate the weeks ahead could define the shape of their respective campaigns long before the new year arrives.

Frequently asked

Where are Portsmouth in the Championship table right now?
Following a four-game unbeaten run with three wins and a draw, Portsmouth climbed to 11th in the Championship and are within two points of the play-off places, according to BBC Sport.
Is John Eustace still Derby County manager?
Yes. Owner David Clowes has publicly backed Eustace despite Derby's difficult start to the season, with the club remaining at the foot of the Championship table.
Can Portsmouth make the Championship play-offs this season?
It remains a long shot, but their recent form has made it a genuine topic of conversation. Forward Adrian Segecic told BBC Radio Solent the squad believes it can push for the top six, and the club sit just two points off the play-off places after their run of form.