Wolverhampton Wanderers head to Ashton Gate on Wednesday evening (20:00) with automatic promotion firmly in their sights, while Bristol City find themselves in need of a result to stop slipping further away from the play-off picture. The numbers behind this fixture tell a story that is uncomfortable for City and rather encouraging for the visitors.

Wolves: building momentum on the road

Wolves arrive in Bristol on the back of a four-game unbeaten run in the league, winning three and drawing one. That form has placed them firmly in contention for second spot: should Swansea City fail to beat Portsmouth on Tuesday, a Wolves victory at Ashton Gate would be enough to lift them into the automatic promotion places.

Their away form this season is a marked improvement on last term, when they went the entire campaign without a single away win, drawing six and losing thirteen. This season they have won three of their six away league fixtures, with one draw and two defeats. That shift matters: any side with genuine promotion ambitions has to pick up points on the road, and Wolves appear to be doing exactly that.

Historically, Wolves have also been reliable at finding the net against City. They have failed to score in only one of their last 12 league meetings with Bristol City, though they have not kept a clean sheet in any of the last 11. Goals, then, seem likely if history is any guide.

Bristol City: the home goal drought

The statistics for Bristol City at home this season make uncomfortable reading for supporters at Ashton Gate. City have scored fewer home league goals than any other club in the Championship this term, managing just three. Each of their last four home games has ended 1-0, one win and three defeats, all of them decided by a single goal either way.

The broader league run is no more encouraging. City have won just once in their last five league games, drawing twice and losing twice, and they have now lost their last two home league fixtures 1-0, against Blackburn and Sheffield United respectively. The last time City lost three consecutive home league games without scoring was in March and April 2021.

Manager Liam Skubala has already spoken publicly about the need to spread the goal-scoring burden more widely across the squad, and these numbers underline why. A side that cannot score at home cannot sustain a promotion push, and with the play-off places now moving away from them, City need goals and they need them soon.

Head-to-head: a lopsided record

The wider historical record between these two clubs favours Wolves considerably. Bristol City have won just two of their last 18 league meetings with Wolverhampton Wanderers, drawing four and losing twelve. Wednesday's fixture is the first time the sides have met in the league since December 2017, when Wolves won 2-1 at Ashton Gate.

That gap of several years reflects the different journeys the two clubs have taken through the divisions. Both are in the Championship this season, and both entered the campaign with ambitions at the top end of the table. The contrast in where they currently find themselves, Wolves chasing second place and City scrambling to reconnect with the play-off spots, is sharp.

What to watch for

With Bristol City's home attack so muted, the pressure is on their forwards to produce something different on a Wednesday night under the Ashton Gate lights. Wolves, for their part, will be aware that a win could change the shape of the automatic promotion race depending on what happens the night before. The market will already have drawn its own conclusions.

For City supporters, the hope is that a high-profile home fixture against promotion-chasing opposition can spark something. The numbers suggest Wolves are the more likely beneficiaries, but football has a way of ignoring the spreadsheet when it suits.

Frequently asked

What time is Bristol City v Wolverhampton Wanderers on Wednesday?
The match kicks off at 20:00 on Wednesday evening at Ashton Gate.
How many home goals have Bristol City scored in the Championship this season?
Bristol City have scored just three home league goals this season, fewer than any other side in the Championship.
Can Wolves go second in the Championship with a win at Bristol City?
Yes. If Swansea City fail to beat Portsmouth on Tuesday, a Wolves victory at Ashton Gate would be enough to move them into second place in the Championship table.