Birmingham City remain very much in the Championship promotion conversation, but Saturday's limp 1-0 defeat at Cardiff City served as a sharp reminder that a four-game purple patch does not make a promotion charge. They sit seventh, three points behind the automatic places, with a testing trip to Lincoln City on Saturday (12:30 GMT) offering an immediate opportunity to prove the Cardiff result was a blip rather than a signal.

Three points off automatic promotion: the numbers that matter

Blues' five-game unbeaten run, which had included three consecutive wins, was ended abruptly in South Wales. The table, however, still flatters their position rather than punishes it. Seventh place, with the top two firmly in view, means every point dropped now is recoverable — but only if the response is swift. A win at Lincoln would pull them back level with the automatic places depending on results elsewhere, and with no side yet running away from the chasing pack, the window for momentum to do its work remains open.

That is precisely the point Craig Courtney, host of the Tilton Talk podcast, made on BBC Radio WM's football phone-in on Wednesday. "Nobody is running away with the league," he said. "Every team seems capable of beating each other on the day." It is a fair observation: the Championship's famously compressed table means a good week can lift a club from mid-table into the top two, and a bad one can drop a genuine contender into the play-off fringe before the next round of fixtures arrives.

Momentum matters more than squad value

Courtney pointed to the precedent of Coventry City's recent play-off run as evidence that collective spirit and momentum can outstrip individual quality in this division. "It's not about having the highest-paid players; it's about a team that can be resilient, scrape a 1-0 and, when they need to, have a horrible game that everybody thinks was rubbish but you get three points out of it." That is the Championship in its most brutal, honest form: results first, performances later.

The caveat, of course, is that Birmingham have now demonstrated exactly that fragility. A four-game unbeaten run is genuinely encouraging; it is also the sort of sequence this division produces for clubs who then go very quiet for six weeks. Chris Davies' side need more than one good spell to convince sceptics they are genuine candidates rather than temporary occupants of a flattering position.

Vasquez must step up with Priske absent

Courtney was candid about the attacking picture at St Andrew's. August Priske, absent for the Cardiff game, was missed not as a goalscorer but as a disruptive presence: "He drags defenders all over the place, creating space and opportunities for other players." With Priske a doubt for Lincoln, Argentine forward Luis Vasquez faces renewed scrutiny. "Vasquez, for me, has got to show us what he's worth," Courtney said plainly. "At the moment we haven't seen that as fans."

There is also a tactical question about where Jay Stansfield is best used. Courtney floated the idea of moving Patrick Roberts into the Stansfield role behind the striker and pushing Stansfield himself further forward to add the kind of physical nuisance Priske provides. Davies will have his own answer to that puzzle, and Courtney was in little doubt that the Cardiff performance would have prompted a frank dressing-room conversation: "Davies is not afraid to tell people when the team hasn't turned up."

Lincoln: no easy fixture to restore confidence

The timing of the Lincoln away fixture is not comfortable. Lincoln are a Championship side finding their feet in the division, and playing a team that has nothing to fear from Blues makes this a genuine examination rather than a recuperative assignment. Travelling supporters will want to see the response that Courtney and others are calling for: not polished football necessarily, but the kind of competitive grit that turns modest performances into three points.

If Birmingham can do that on Saturday, the promotion conversation becomes more credible. If they cannot, seven points off the automatic places starts to look a lot more daunting than three.

Frequently asked

Where are Birmingham City in the Championship table?
Birmingham City are currently seventh in the Championship, three points behind the automatic promotion places.
When do Birmingham City play Lincoln City?
Birmingham City travel to Lincoln City on Saturday, with kick-off at 12:30 GMT.
Is August Priske fit for Birmingham's match at Lincoln?
Priske was absent for the Cardiff defeat and remains a doubt for the Lincoln fixture, according to reports ahead of the match.