Three wins and a draw from four games. Nineteen days ago Portsmouth were sitting 19th in the Championship table, having just lost a south coast derby 1-0 at Southampton. Now they are 11th and within two points of the play-off places. It is, by any measure, a rapid turnaround. The question worth asking plainly is: how real is it?

The numbers behind the run

According to figures cited by BBC Sport, Portsmouth are already five points better off at this stage of the season than they were at the equivalent point last year, and ten points better off than in the campaign before that. That is not noise. That is a trend pointing upward across three successive seasons in the second tier.

The same data places Pompey in their highest position in the football pyramid after more than five games of a season since March 2011. For a club that spent over a decade outside the second tier before winning promotion, that context matters. It tells you the ceiling is rising, even if we do not yet know how high it goes.

We should be honest about the limits of what a four-game sample proves. Good runs happen to teams that ultimately finish mid-table. But there is a difference between a flattering purple patch and one that reflects something structural changing in a squad. At this point, the evidence is not conclusive either way.

What the players believe

Forward Adrian Segecic was direct when speaking to BBC Radio Solent. "We can definitely achieve where we want to be: play-offs and competing at the top of the table," he said. "There's no reason we shouldn't believe we can, and we have shown it now."

That kind of confidence is easy to dismiss as boilerplate from a player whose team is in form. But belief is not nothing. John Mousinho has spoken previously about building a culture at Fratton Park, and a dressing room that genuinely expects to compete is a different animal from one that merely hopes to survive. The mood, by all accounts, has shifted.

The Hull City comparison worth examining

BBC Sport draws a parallel with Hull City, who finished 21st in the Championship, survived on goal difference on the final day, and then reached the Premier League the following season via the play-offs. It is a real precedent, not a invented one. A club does not need to win the league to go up.

Portsmouth's path would require them to sustain this form over a much longer stretch, of course. Two points off the top six in late October is encouraging; two points off in late March is a different conversation entirely. But the Hull comparison at least demonstrates that clubs coming from a low base can find momentum and carry it through. The second tier has a habit of rewarding teams that stop worrying about relegation and start playing without fear.

Saturday's test at Burnley

Pompey travel to Burnley on Saturday. It is a searching examination. Burnley are a side with considerably greater resources, and playing away from Fratton Park has historically been tougher for this Portsmouth team. A win there would be a genuine statement; even a point would maintain the trajectory.

John Mousinho has been careful in his public comments about expectations, and that measured approach is wise. Overpromising in October has a way of looking foolish in February. But the players, at least, appear to need no caution in their ambitions. Whether that translates into enough points across the remaining months is what we are all here to find out.

For now, Portsmouth are a second-tier side playing with energy and confidence, in a position they have not occupied for well over a decade. That is worth acknowledging without overselling it. The play-offs are possible. They are not yet probable. But then, nobody told Hull City that either.

Frequently asked

Where are Portsmouth in the Championship table right now?
Following a four-game unbeaten run that produced three wins and a draw, Portsmouth climbed to 11th place in the Championship, sitting within two points of the play-off places.
Can Portsmouth make the Championship play-offs this season?
It is too early to say with confidence, but Portsmouth are mathematically close to the top six in late October and are in their highest league position for well over a decade. Sustaining form over the full season remains the key challenge.
Who is Portsmouth's manager in the Championship?
John Mousinho is the Portsmouth head coach. He has guided the club through two previous seasons of survival battles and is now overseeing their most promising run of form since returning to the second tier.