If you judged Cardiff City purely on how many chances they create, you would put them comfortably in the top half of the Championship. Seven games in, they lead the entire division with 6.4 efforts on target per 90 minutes, and only the top two clubs in the division sit above them for expected goals (xG). The trouble is that xG does not appear on the scoreboard.

What the numbers actually say

Let us be precise about what xG measures before leaning on it too heavily. The metric assigns each shot a probability of going in based on factors such as distance, angle and whether it was a header. Cardiff's xG total through seven games stands at 12.7, which places them third in the division. They have actually scored seven league goals, meaning they are underperforming that figure by 5.7 goals. That is not a rounding error; it is the largest gap between xG and actual goals of any side in the Championship right now.

The expected points (xPTS) table, which is built from comparing a team's xG for and against, puts Cardiff eighth on 11 points. Their real position tells a different story: four points, one place above the drop zone, and still waiting for a first league win of the season. That difference between the two tables is as stark as it gets at this stage of the campaign.

We should acknowledge the limits here. Seven games is a small sample. Finishing conversion rates fluctuate throughout a season, and a team can plausibly outperform or underperform xG by five or six goals purely through chance over such a short run. But 5.7 goals is a large gap even accounting for noise, and the pattern is consistent enough across every game to take seriously.

Salech under the spotlight

Much of the conversation around Cardiff's profligacy focuses on Yousef Salech. The 24-year-old Danish striker was a key figure as Cardiff won promotion last season, and his movement has not deserted him; Barry-Murphy insists he is regularly getting into the right positions. The underlying numbers, however, are uncomfortable reading. According to the source data, no player in the second tier has missed more big chances this season than Salech, who has spurned six. He ranks 18th among Championship strikers for shots per 90 minutes at 3.1, which suggests he is getting involved but not converting.

Salech has hit three goals in cup football this term, which hints the problem may be psychological as much as technical. Former Wales forward Nathan Blake, watching from the BBC Radio Wales gantry at Bolton, described the striker as appearing short of confidence, with Cardiff's entire attacking play in the final third feeling "soft and timid." That kind of language is harder to measure than xG, but it is not easy to dismiss either.

With backup forward Callum Robinson regularly an unused substitute, there is a real question about whether Cardiff are too reliant on one focal point. Barry-Murphy has expressed confidence that the goals will come for Salech if he keeps finding the right areas. That faith is understandable, but the margin for error when you are sitting four points from safety is slim.

The Bolton defeat as a case study

Saturday's 1-0 defeat at Bolton felt representative of everything that has gone wrong. Cardiff fired 17 shots, put 10 on target, and were punished by a Thierry Gale goal in the 90th minute. Salech thought he had equalised only for Bolton keeper Gavin Bazunu to produce a fine close-range save. Creating that many chances against a side that ultimately won the game comfortably underlines the disconnect between Cardiff's process and their results.

"We created enough chances to win many games," Barry-Murphy said afterwards. "If we keep creating the chances that we are, I'm certain we will win. I'm not naive. I know we need to win games, and we've got to do it quickly."

That is a reasonable position, and it is worth saying plainly: wasting chances is far more fixable than not creating them. A side that cannot manufacture opportunities has a structural problem. Cardiff's issue looks more like a confidence and conversion one, which can turn quickly, particularly if a striker finds a rich vein of form.

What comes next

The Bluebirds host Charlton Athletic on Saturday, 19 September (12:30), in the last fixture before the international break. Charlton arrive having scored fewer league goals than Cardiff this season, and have not found the net in their three most recent outings. On paper, this is the fixture Cardiff need to end their wait for a first league win. Whether the finishing woes ease in time remains the central question of Barry-Murphy's early tenure.

Frequently asked

Why are Cardiff City not winning despite creating so many chances?
Cardiff are creating more efforts on target per game than any other Championship side, but they are underperforming their expected goals total by 5.7 goals, the largest gap in the division. In plain terms, they are missing chances they would normally be expected to convert, which has left them with only four points from seven games.
How many goals has Yousef Salech scored for Cardiff this season?
Salech has scored once in the Championship this season, though he has added three goals in cup football. He has missed six big chances in league play, more than any other player in the second tier according to current figures.
When is Cardiff City's next Championship match?
Cardiff host Charlton Athletic on Saturday, 19 September, with kick-off at 12:30. It is the final game before the international break and represents a significant opportunity for the Bluebirds to record their first league win of the campaign.