Wolverhampton Wanderers host Cardiff City at Molineux on Saturday (15:00 GMT) in a Championship fixture that carries very different stakes for either side. Wolves are pushing hard for automatic promotion; Cardiff are chasing respectability and, perhaps, a late charge into the conversation. The numbers ahead of kick-off are worth unpicking.

Wolves eyeing the top two

Wolves currently sit fourth in the Championship table, just two points behind second-placed Swansea City. The arithmetic is simple enough: a win on Saturday and a slip elsewhere could move them into the automatic promotion places. Their recent home form supports the idea that Molineux has become a fortress again. They have won three of their last five home league games, which sounds modest until you set it against context: they had won only three of their previous 22 at home before that run (drawing seven and losing 12). Something has shifted.

That said, Wolves and Cardiff bring one of the stranger head-to-head records you will find in this division. None of the last 12 league meetings between the two clubs have ended in a draw. Not one. Cardiff shade the overall ledger, winning seven of those 12 to Wolves' five. The sides have also alternated between winning and losing across their last six home league meetings specifically, with Wolves winning the most recent of those 2-0 back in March 2019. Patterns like these are easy to over-read, but the absence of draws across a dozen games is genuinely unusual and at least suggests both sides tend to commit to winning these fixtures rather than settling.

Cardiff's away-day problem

The Bluebirds arrive in a reasonable vein of form overall. Three games unbeaten (two wins, one draw) has given them a platform, and sitting 16th they are not in any real danger. The trouble is that all of that momentum has been built at home or, at best, in draws on the road. Cardiff are one of only three Championship clubs yet to win away from home this season, along with Preston and Watford. Two draws and four defeats on the road tells its own story.

Molineux is not an easy venue to put that right. The question is whether Cardiff's recent confidence translates when they have to do it without their own supporters behind them. The evidence so far says no, though three results is not a large enough sample to dismiss the possibility that something is genuinely changing in how this squad approaches away fixtures.

Tanner's creativity stands out

One Cardiff player whose numbers demand attention is Ollie Tanner. According to the source data, Tanner has created more chances from open play than any other player in the Championship this season, with 25 to his name. Only Finn Azaz has more open-play assists than Tanner's four. Creating chances and turning them into assists are related but different things. Tanner is clearly getting into dangerous positions and finding teammates regularly enough to rank among the division's best creators. Whether those chances are being converted at the other end is a separate question, and one the raw assist figure only partly answers.

It is worth being clear about what this does and does not tell us. Chance creation from open play rewards players who find space and pick passes in the final third. It does not capture the quality of those chances, which matters enormously. Still, leading the entire division in that measure is a meaningful signal, and it suggests Cardiff have a genuine weapon in Tanner even on days when the team as a whole is under pressure.

What to watch for

The headline tension here is between Wolves' home momentum and Cardiff's stubborn inability to win on the road. Wolves need the points to stay in contention for automatic promotion; Cardiff need the points to keep any outside ambitions alive and, more immediately, to prove their good run is not purely a home phenomenon. Given the history of this fixture, a draw would actually be the surprising result. On the numbers, Wolves start as the likelier winners, but twelve meetings without a stalemate is a reminder that both clubs tend to make these occasions unpredictable.

Frequently asked

What time does Wolves vs Cardiff kick off on Saturday?
The match kicks off at 15:00 GMT on Saturday at Molineux.
Have Wolves beaten Cardiff recently?
Wolves' last home league win over Cardiff was a 2-0 victory in March 2019. The sides have alternated between winning and losing in their last six home meetings, with none of the last 12 league encounters ending in a draw.
Why haven't Cardiff won away from home this season?
Cardiff have drawn two and lost four of their away Championship matches so far this season, making them one of only three clubs yet to record an away win. Their recent unbeaten run of three games has come at home or in draws on the road.